Publications
Choquette-Levy, N.; Ghimire, D.; Oppenheimer, M.; Ghimire, R.; and D. CK. “Hunkering Down” under Climate-Driven Risks in Subsistence Farming Communities, in prep.
We conduct a survey of 500 farming households in Nepal’s Chitwan Valley and employ cross-sectional and time series techniques to investigate how farmers’ information sources, social capital, and previous exposure to climate hazards shape climate risk perceptions and liveilhood decisions.
Abstract
Increasing climate risks introduce new sources of uncertainty to smallholder farmers' livelihood decisions. In response, several governments have invested in climate information services for farmers, but current evidence is mixed on how farmers actually integrate such information in their livelihood decision-making. In this study, we conduct a survey of 500 farming households in Nepal’s Chitwan Valley and employ a suite of cross-sectional and time series econometric techniques to analyze how farmers’ information sources, social capital, and previous exposure to climate hazards shape climate risk perceptions and livelihood decisions. We find that climate-driven risks are highly salient to household perceptions of farming risks; however, they also drive higher perceived risks of common livelihood diversification strategies, including rural-urban migration and off-farm employment. Further, access to greater informational and social capital may actually decrease the perceived risk of specific climate-driven hazards, including droughts and groundwater scarcity. Finally, we find that while farming households generally maintain diversified income portfolios, exposure to droughts and/or floods leads to persistent increases in the reliance on farming income, which we term a ``hunkering down" response. Our results indicate that efforts to build farmers' resilience to climate risks should especially account for perceived risks of livelihood alternatives, financial constraints, and loss-averse behavior in response to income shocks.Choquette-Levy, N.; Wildemeersch, M.; Santos, F.; Levin, S.; Oppenheimer, M.; and E. Weber (2024). Pro-Social Preferences Improve Climate Risk Management in Subsistence Farming Communities, Nature Sustainability, 1-12.
We integrate a novel evolutionary game theory model with empirical data from Nepal and Ethiopia to demonstrate that new index-based climate insurance mechanisms and rising climate risks may introduce a new social dilemma, in which farmers opt out of informal revenue-sharing cooperatives.
Abstract
Several governments have tested formal index-based insurance to build climate resilience among smallholder farmers. Yet, adoption of such programmes has generated concerns that insurance may crowd out long-established informal risk transfer arrangements. Understanding this phenomenon requires new analytic approaches that capture dynamics of human social behaviour when facing risky events. Here we develop a modelling framework, based on evolutionary game theory and empirical data from Nepal and Ethiopia, to demonstrate that insurance may introduce a new social dilemma in farmer risk management strategies. We fnd that while socially optimal risk management is achieved when all farmers pursue a combination of formal and informal risk transfer, a community of self-interested agents is unable to maintain this co-existence under rising climate risks. We fnd that a combination of prosocial preferences— moderate altruism and solidarity—helps farmers overcome these concerns and achieve the social optimum. In our model, behavioural interventions that cue such preferences can reduce farmer expected losses by 26% and save approximately 5% of community agricultural income through reduced premium subsidies under climate risk levels likely to emerge in the coming decades.Thalheimer, L.; Choquette-Levy, N.; and F. Garip (2022). Compound impacts from drought and structural vulnerability on human mobility, iScience, 25(12): 105491.
We analyze the impacts of compound risks (i.e. multiple climate and social factors that threaten livelihoods) on migration responses to drought in Madagascar, Mexico, and Nepal. We find that the net climate-migration relationship depends on social factors e.g. access to irrigation, accurate information, and social connections.
Abstract
Extreme dry events already disrupt populations’ ability to migrate. In a warming climate, compound drought events could amplify vulnerability and drive forced migration. Here, we contribute the first multi-method research design on societal impacts from compound drought events. We show how mobility patterns are shaped by the intersection of drought and social vulnerability factors in three drought-prone countries – Madagascar, Nepal, and Mexico. We find that internal migration in agricultural communities in Mexico increased by 14 to 24 basis points from 1991 to 2018 and will prospectively increase by 2 to 15 basis points in Nepal in case of a compound drought event in 2025. We show that consecutive drought events exacerbate structural vulnerabilities, limiting migrants’ adaptation options, including long-range migration. We conclude that the additional social pre-conditions, e.g., social isolation and lack of accurate information, ultimately limit migration as an adaptation option for households vulnerable to compound drought events.Choquette-Levy, N.; Wildemeersch, M.; Oppenheimer, M.; and S. A. Levin (2021). Risk transfer policies and climate-induced immobility among smallholder farmers, Nature Climate Change, 11(12): 1046-1054.
We develop a novel agent-based model to assess the efficacy of various risk transfer policies in promoting smallholder farmer resilience to rising climate risks. We find that a combination of cash and risk transfer policies is robust in improving farmer income and reducing inequality, in part by alleviating climate-induced poverty traps.
Abstract
Climate change is anticipated to impact smallholder farmer livelihoods substantially. However, empirical evidence is inconclusive regarding how increased climate stress affects smallholder farmers’ deployment of various livelihood strategies, including rural–urban migration. Here we use an agent-based model to show that in a South Asian agricultural community experiencing a 1.5 oC temperature increase by 2050, climate impacts are likely to decrease household income in 2050 by an average of 28%, with fewer households investing in both economic migration and cash crops, relative to a stationary climate. Pairing a small cash transfer with risk transfer mechanisms significantly increases the adoption of migration and cash crops, improves community incomes and reduces community inequality. While specific results depend on contextual factors such as risk preferences and climate risk exposure, these interventions are robust in improving adaptation outcomes and alleviating immobility, by addressing the intersection of risk aversion, financial constraints and climate impacts.Choquette-Levy, N.; Zhong, M.; MacLean, H.L.; and J. Bergerson (2018). COPTEM: A model to investigate the factors driving crude oil pipleine transportation emissions, Environmental Science and Technology, 52(1): 337-345.
We develop a fluid mechanics-based model to estimate the greenhouse gas emissions associated with pipeline transportation of crude oil across North America, finding considerably greater variability in emissions intensity compared to previous studies.
Abstract
Previous transportation fuel life cycle assessment studies have not fully accounted for the full variability in the crude oil transport stage, for example, transporting a light crude through a high-diameter pipeline, vs transporting a heavy crude through a small-diameter pipeline. We develop a first-principles, fluid mechanics-based crude oil pipeline transportation emissions model (COPTEM) that calculates the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with pipeline transport as a function of crude oil parameters, pipeline dimensions, and external factors. Additionally, we estimate the emissions associated with the full life cycle of pipeline construction, maintenance, and disposal. This model is applied to an inventory of 62 major Canadian and U.S. pipelines (capacity greater than 100 000 barrels/day) to estimate the variability of GHG emissions associated with pipeline transportation. We demonstrate that pipeline GHG emissions intensities range from 0.23 to 20.3 g CO2e/(bbl·km), exhibiting considerably greater variability than data reported in other studies. A sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the linear velocity of crude transport and pipeline diameter are the most impactful parameters driving this variability. To illustrate one example of how COPTEM can be used, we develop an energy efficiency gap analysis to investigate the possibilities for more efficient pipeline transport of crude oil.Choquette-Levy, N.; MacLean, H.L.; and J.A. Bergerson (2013). Should Alberta upgrade oil sands bitumen? An integrated life cycle framework to evaluate energy systems investment tradeoffs, Energy Policy, 61: 78-87.
We integrate life cycle and cost-benefit analysis to assess the economic and environmental tradeoffs of upgrading oil sands crude oil to higher-quality synthetic crude oil under different carbon-price scenarios. We find that stakeholders with different perceptions of risk and emissions responsibilites will differ on whether the Canadian province of Alberta should incentivize this technology, which became a salient public policy response to the perception that the province did not extract sufficient value from its natural resources.